A new PBS News/NPR/Marist poll reveals Democrats hold their largest congressional advantage in eight years, presenting a wake-up call for Republicans who must mobilize conservative voters before the critical 2026 midterms.
Story Snapshot
- Democrats lead Republicans 55% to 41% in congressional preference polling, their biggest margin since 2017.
- Trump’s approval rating dropped to -17 points, down from -12 in September.
- Recent Democratic victories in Virginia, New Jersey, and New York signal potential GOP challenges ahead.
- Republicans face perception issues, with 60% of Americans viewing the party as closed-minded in political discussions.
Poll Numbers Signal Republican Challenge
The PBS News/NPR/Marist survey conducted November 10-13, 2025, shows 55 percent of voters would choose a Democrat congressional candidate versus 41 percent for Republicans.
This 14-point Democratic advantage represents their strongest position since November 2017, when they subsequently captured over 40 House seats in Trump’s first-term midterms.
The polling data suggests Republicans must urgently address voter concerns to avoid repeating 2018’s significant losses in the upcoming 2026 elections.
Boost for Democrats as new poll shows 14-point lead over Republicans. https://t.co/KlSR512oI8
— Newsweek (@Newsweek) November 19, 2025
Independent Voters Abandoning GOP
Perhaps most concerning for Republicans, independent voters favor Democrats by a staggering 33-point margin, with 61 percent supporting Democrat candidates compared to just 28 percent backing Republicans.
These swing voters often determine election outcomes, making their defection particularly troubling for conservative candidates.
The massive gap among independents indicates Republicans have failed to effectively communicate their message on key issues like economic growth, border security, and constitutional freedoms that typically resonate with unaffiliated voters.
Messaging Problems Hurt Republican Brand
The poll reveals a significant perception problem: 60 percent of Americans view Republicans as closed-minded in political discussions, while only 39 percent see them as open-minded.
Democrats fare better with 51 percent viewed as open-minded versus 48 percent as closed-minded.
Among independents, the gap widens dramatically with 69 percent calling Republicans closed-minded compared to 53 percent viewing Democrats as open-minded.
This suggests Republicans must refine their communication strategy to better connect with voters while maintaining core conservative principles.
Recent Democrat Wins Build Momentum
The polling follows several Democrat electoral victories that have energized their base ahead of 2026.
In Virginia, former Representative Abigail Spanberger defeated Republican Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears for governor, while New Jersey saw Democrat Representative Mikie Sherrill beat Republican Jack Ciattarelli.
New York City elected Zohran Mamdani as its first Muslim mayor, defeating former Governor Andrew Cuomo.
Cook Political Report’s Amy Walter noted these wins have “consequences in invigorating Democrats,” while former White House strategist Steve Bannon warned on X that “warning signs are flashing” for Republicans.
Trump’s Approval Decline Complicates GOP Strategy
President Trump’s approval rating fell to -17 points with 39 percent approving and 56 percent disapproving, down from -12 points in September.
This declining approval presents challenges for Republican candidates who must balance Trump loyalty with broader electoral appeal.
Conservative voters remain Trump’s strongest supporters, but winning back independents and moderate Republicans requires addressing concerns about both policy outcomes and political messaging.
The 2026 midterms will test whether Republicans can unite their base while expanding their coalition to reclaim congressional majorities.
