A Texas governor who has never lost a reelection now sits tied or trailing in the poll everyone in politics is talking about this week.
Quick Take
- A New York Times/Siena University poll shows Democrat Gina Hinojosa ahead of Republican Governor Greg Abbott by 4 points in Texas.
- The same pollster reports Democrats leading or gaining fast in governor races in Iowa and Ohio, two more states Republicans usually win easily.
- Many other Texas polls from different firms still show Abbott ahead, some by wide margins.
- Abbott’s team points to the overall polling average, which still favors him, as other surveys contradict the Times result.
- The split numbers show how shaky late-cycle polling can be, even as Democrats hunt for a foothold in red states before the midterms.
New York Times Poll Shows Hinojosa Edging Ahead Of Abbott
The New York Times and Siena University surveyed Texas voters from September 21 through 30. Their result had Democrat Gina Hinojosa at 49 percent and Republican Governor Greg Abbott at 46 percent, a 4-point edge for the challenger. For a state Republicans have carried in every governor’s race since 1994, that number alone grabbed national headlines and put Abbott’s seat on lists of races suddenly worth watching.
The Texas number was not an isolated blip for the pollster. The same New York Times reporting found Democrats holding a strong lead in Iowa’s governor race and a widening advantage in Ohio among likely voters, two more states that typically lean solidly Republican. Taken together, the three races formed the backbone of a story about Democrats pushing into territory they rarely contest seriously.
Latino Democrats Push The National Party To Invest
The poll results moved fast beyond punditry. Latino Democratic leaders renewed calls for the Democratic Governors Association to put serious money into the Texas race, pointing directly to the New York Times and Siena College numbers as proof the contest is winnable. Their argument is simple: if a major, respected pollster shows the race within reach, national Democrats should stop treating Texas as a lost cause and start funding it like a real battleground.
That optimism runs against a long run of contrary evidence from earlier in the year. An August poll had Abbott leading Hinojosa by seven points, with sizable undecided voters still up for grabs. Other surveys through the summer bounced between a narrow Abbott edge and a near tie, showing a race that has moved constantly rather than settling into one clear direction heading into fall.
The Fuller Picture: Abbott Still Leads Most Polls
Abbott’s campaign has downplayed the tighter numbers, pointing instead to the broader polling average. As of late September, that average had Abbott ahead of Hinojosa by 1.8 percentage points, 47.8 percent to 46 percent, with Abbott still favored to win reelection despite two polls showing Hinojosa in front. That average includes surveys from pollsters showing gaps as wide as seven points in Abbott’s favor, a reminder that one headline poll rarely tells the whole story.
Texas remains a state where Republicans hold every statewide office, and Abbott has won three straight terms by comfortable margins. A single poll showing movement is worth watching, not treating as a verdict. Voters should expect the numbers to keep swinging between now and November, and conservatives have good reason to trust Texas’s deep red voting history over any one snapshot survey.
Sources:
nytimes.com, cbsnews.com, usatoday.com
